Zillow: Don’t Buy a Home in Hartford! | Waccabuc Real Estate

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The folks in Conecticut will be unpleasantly surprised to learn they beat out Vegas and Miami as the riskiest market to buy a home.

Zillow set out to look at the markets where housing prices have declined the most over the past 35 years and chained the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) backward in time to 1979 Q4 using the FHFA Home Price Index. For each of the 50 largest housing markets, we analyzed the change in median home values over 117 rolling five-year periods since the end of 1979. The “risk of loss” is the percentage of those periods that created negative returns for homeowners. In the case of ties between markets, those with the bigger drop in their worst years were ranked as riskier.

The housing markets with the highest percentage of negative five-year returns are Hartford (37 percent risk of loss), Providence (32 percent), Riverside (31 percent), Boston (30 percent) and Los Angeles (29 percent). The five least risky metro areas by the same metric are Buffalo (0 percent risk of loss), Pittsburgh (0 percent), Louisville-Jefferson County (3 percent), Raleigh (9 percent) and Nashville (9 percent).

Some of the most risky areas may come as a bit of a surprise, as they aren’t known as places that were hardest-hit after the most recent housing bubble. While the measure of percent of negative returns identifies the metro areas where home values more consistently declined, it does not give extra weight to places that saw extreme declines post-bubble. If we look at the percent change in ZHVI in the worst year, we surface some of the usual suspects that were headline areas for home values declines and foreclosures after the peak in home values.


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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/07/zillow-dont-buy-a-home-in-hartford/



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