Is the Recovery Coming to a Screeching Halt? | Armonk Real Estate
After slowly winding down over the summer months, the third and fourth quarter data now being released shows that price appreciation is no longer slowing. It is now within inches of a total screeching halt that could presage a shift in the recovery’s momentum as real estate markets don their pajamas for the winter hibernation.
The September 2014 index data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released yesterday showed that home prices continue to decelerate. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in August. The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.
The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in September. Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn while the National Index posted a -0.1% change for the month. Charlotte and Miami led all cities in September with increases of 0.6%. Atlanta and Washington D.C. offset those gains by reporting decreases of 0.3% and 0.4%.
“The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Index reported a month-over-month decrease for the first time since November 2013. The Northeast region reported its first negative monthly returns since December 2013 and its worst annual returns since December 2012 due to weaknesses in Washington D.C. and Boston. The West and Southwest, previously strong regions, are seeing price gains fade. The only region showing any sustained strength is the Southeast led by Florida; price gains are also evident in Atlanta and Charlotte.
In Black Knight’s August report, prices rose only 0.1% above July and are up only 4.6% over 2013. Biggest gains were in New York (0.6%) and Texas (0.5%)
RealtyTrac’s October report released today was more optimistic. It found that the median sales price of U.S. single family homes and condos in October was $193,000, up 2% from the previous month and up 16% from a year ago to the highest level since September 2008 — a 73-month high, according to RealtyTrac.
The October median sales price — which included both distressed sales of homes in some stage of foreclosure and non-distressed sales — was up 37% from a trough of $141,000 in March 2012 but still 19% below the previous peak of $237,537 in August 2006.
“This U.S. recovery is largely being driven by investors, and as the lower-priced, often distressed inventory most appealing to investors dries up in a given market, investor activity will slow down in that market and move to other markets with more ideal inventory available,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “This has created a ripple-effect recovery moving out from traditional investor hot spots such as Phoenix, Atlanta and many California markets and into markets such as Charlotte, Columbus, Ohio, Dallas and Oklahoma City.
read more....
http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/11/is-the-recovery-coming-to-a-screeching-halt/
The September 2014 index data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released yesterday showed that home prices continue to decelerate. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in August. The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.
The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in September. Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn while the National Index posted a -0.1% change for the month. Charlotte and Miami led all cities in September with increases of 0.6%. Atlanta and Washington D.C. offset those gains by reporting decreases of 0.3% and 0.4%.
“The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Index reported a month-over-month decrease for the first time since November 2013. The Northeast region reported its first negative monthly returns since December 2013 and its worst annual returns since December 2012 due to weaknesses in Washington D.C. and Boston. The West and Southwest, previously strong regions, are seeing price gains fade. The only region showing any sustained strength is the Southeast led by Florida; price gains are also evident in Atlanta and Charlotte.
In Black Knight’s August report, prices rose only 0.1% above July and are up only 4.6% over 2013. Biggest gains were in New York (0.6%) and Texas (0.5%)
RealtyTrac’s October report released today was more optimistic. It found that the median sales price of U.S. single family homes and condos in October was $193,000, up 2% from the previous month and up 16% from a year ago to the highest level since September 2008 — a 73-month high, according to RealtyTrac.
The October median sales price — which included both distressed sales of homes in some stage of foreclosure and non-distressed sales — was up 37% from a trough of $141,000 in March 2012 but still 19% below the previous peak of $237,537 in August 2006.
“This U.S. recovery is largely being driven by investors, and as the lower-priced, often distressed inventory most appealing to investors dries up in a given market, investor activity will slow down in that market and move to other markets with more ideal inventory available,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “This has created a ripple-effect recovery moving out from traditional investor hot spots such as Phoenix, Atlanta and many California markets and into markets such as Charlotte, Columbus, Ohio, Dallas and Oklahoma City.
read more....
http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/11/is-the-recovery-coming-to-a-screeching-halt/
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