The housing market is just not healthy | Chappaqua Real Estate
The National Association of Homebuilders sentiment gauge has been stuck in neutral for the past four months and the latest number came in flat a 54 for October. A reading above 50 is said to be positive, and the spin is certainly positive, but what is really going on with the housing market?
The flat verdict of 54 was below expectations of 55 and the usual scapegoats are the reasons provided for the miss.
“Policy and economic uncertainty is undermining consumer confidence. The fact that builder confidence remains above 50 is an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline.”
So, consumers and builders are postponing their purchases and building because of the US debt ceiling debates, something that has already occurred 80 times over the past 50 years? It's doubtful.
This kind of rhetoric provides zero value and is simply meant to give the media something to talk and write about. In reality, the head of the Homebuilders Association either has no real clue, or is afraid to say what he sees in fear of rocking the market’s fragile confidence boat. Either way, his musings must be taken with a grain of salt.
"Just the Facts, Ma'am"
The housing market is not healthy, no matter how the National Association of Homebuilders, Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, or whoever tries to sell you otherwise.
According to RealtyTrac, 49% of all home purchases in the month of September were all cash deals, implying the traditional homeowner has now become only half of the housing market (and falling) as institutional investors such as Blackstone (NYSE:BX) set all time records in purchases. Compare the latest number to only 30% of housing transactions that were all cash one year ago and less than 20% for most of pre-2008.
Some other stats from RealtyTrac:
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/real-estate/articles/Is-the-US-Housing-Market-Far/11/20/2013/id/52760#ixzz2lDiJM6Gj
The flat verdict of 54 was below expectations of 55 and the usual scapegoats are the reasons provided for the miss.
“Policy and economic uncertainty is undermining consumer confidence. The fact that builder confidence remains above 50 is an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline.”
So, consumers and builders are postponing their purchases and building because of the US debt ceiling debates, something that has already occurred 80 times over the past 50 years? It's doubtful.
This kind of rhetoric provides zero value and is simply meant to give the media something to talk and write about. In reality, the head of the Homebuilders Association either has no real clue, or is afraid to say what he sees in fear of rocking the market’s fragile confidence boat. Either way, his musings must be taken with a grain of salt.
"Just the Facts, Ma'am"
The housing market is not healthy, no matter how the National Association of Homebuilders, Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, or whoever tries to sell you otherwise.
According to RealtyTrac, 49% of all home purchases in the month of September were all cash deals, implying the traditional homeowner has now become only half of the housing market (and falling) as institutional investors such as Blackstone (NYSE:BX) set all time records in purchases. Compare the latest number to only 30% of housing transactions that were all cash one year ago and less than 20% for most of pre-2008.
Some other stats from RealtyTrac:
- Since 2011 over $1 Trillion of real estate has been sold in the United States
- 54% of those were all cash purchases since 2011
- In 2013, speculators and institutional investors have already purchased 370,000 properties, more than both 2011 and 2012 combined
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/real-estate/articles/Is-the-US-Housing-Market-Far/11/20/2013/id/52760#ixzz2lDiJM6Gj
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